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For the First Half strategy the method is a little different; you do a LTD wager in the first half market, as well when the odds hit 2. What should you do though, if a goal is scored? This will come down to personal choice. If a home favourite scores then you can either cash out for a profit, or remove your stake, or let it ride until full time.
If the underdog scores though, would you let it ride, or take the profit? This will be a personal choice.
This can lead to a stalemate where neither team scores, and you run the risk of losing your bet before you get a chance to trade out. Closely matched teams who both tend to score a lot of goals are usually the games you want to look for. Once we have found a match that fits all of our criteria, we can use our strategy. Never get greedy and try to use it with any match that pops up.
A sensible trader knows only to take the opportunities that are in their best interest. We will use the example of the upcoming Man City v Chelsea game to demonstrate. The odds for a draw are a little high, but still within acceptable boundaries. We pick the lay option in the Draw row. The best odds we can get right now are 5. At this point, we can exit out of our position by backing the draw for a better price, and guarantee a profit. An issue with this match is that Man City are very heavily favoured to win.
If Chelsea score first, early on in the match, the odds for the draw may actually decrease, as punters expect Man City to score and level up the scoreline. As we said previously, we are usually waiting for one team to score so that the odds of a draw occurring decrease, and we can exit out of our position for a profit. This falls through when one team is heavily favoured, and the underdog scores first, early on in the match.
In this situation, the odds for a draw may actually increase, as the favoured team will be expected to score at some point and even things up. This takes away our opportunity to trade out for a profit and is, therefore, something we will seek to avoid. We can deal with this problem in a few different ways. Firstly, avoiding games where one team is heavily favoured is a simple way to combat this issue. Different traders have different preferences, but most usually look for matches where the odds for a draw are between 3.
If the odds for a draw are less than 3. The potential for loss outweighs the potential gain, and it is better to find a more reliable game. If you find yourself in a position where the underdog has scored first and thereby created a situation where you cannot exit out for a profit, there are still a couple of different options.
Every game is different, and you have to use your experience to decide the best course of action. As a trader, we have to accept our losses when they come, but attempt to minimise them as much as possible. It is usually best practice to exit out of your position as soon as the underdog scores. You should take every game as it comes. If the underdog has scored very early on against the run of play, you could maintain your position, and hope that the favourite scores twice over the rest of the match.
If the underdog is playing much better football and looks like scoring again, then you can also stay in your position and hope the match ends in a win for the underdog. Another, more risky tactic, is to lay the underdog if they score first. In this situation, you are essentially doubling down on the favourite scoring next. It is best to gain some experience in laying the draw before attempting this kind of strategy, as you are increasing your liability.
Another issue with laying the draw is that sometimes neither team scores for the majority of the match. You are relying on one team scoring to be able to exit out of your position for a profit. If it is looking like the match will end in a goalless draw, it is usually best practice to exit out of your position early and take a minimised loss.
Again, you should judge each game as it comes. However, if it gets to 75 minutes and neither team has scored, you should probably sell your position. You can stay in the match and hope that one team scores, but a sensible trader knows when to cut his or her losses.
When starting out, you should make a rule of exiting at a certain time such as 75 minutes into the game. As you gain more experience, then you can start to play with staying in the game longer if you think it looks likely one team will grab a winner. This post was written by Andy Beggs. The Match Odds market will give you the same options to back the home win, away win and draw but you will also be able to lay any of them. You could back Manchester United exactly the same as at a bookmaker, but you're still relying on them to perform.
You could lay Arsenal so that as soon as the match kicks-off you're already winning your bet, but an away win would be an expensive loss. Laying the draw is somewhere in between and as long as one of teams gets a positive result, you will end up with a profit. For example, if a Manchester United player is sent off early in the game and Arsenal go on to win, your lay bet still wins.
So that's back and lay betting covered and now we can dive into the football trading aspects of lay the draw. With betting, a result when laying the draw will always result in a loss. However, if you are prepared to trade while matches are in-play then you may still be able to bank a profit.
This is because of price movement and the effect of goals on Match Odds market prices. Continuing with the example of Manchester United v Arsenal, the home side scored a goal during the first half and this caused market prices to change. The favourites were up and even more likely to win the game than they were when the score was , so the home win price fell and the away win price soared.
Applying that same logic to the draw, it was also less likely to happen than it was when the score was so that price rose as well. This price movement meant it was now possible to lock in a profit. The calculation is easy with our free Hedging Calculator. Say you had layed the draw at kick-off at 4. Your trade is complete and you can let the rest of the match play out safe in the knowledge that your profit will be added to your Betfair balance once the match ends.
It's not much less than the profit had you backed Manchester United at 1. There are other options too. If you back the draw for just enough to cover the liability, you will now have a free bet on the home win with the score already Because you don't need to back the draw as much, you will have more profit left over. That's even closer to the profit of a straight bet on the home win and there's no longer any risk. You could even sit back and do nothing.
If Manchester United go up then the draw price will rise a lot higher and you'll be able to lock in much more profit. In this particular game, Arsenal equalised soon into the second half. As you can see below, the market reverted to a similar state as it was at kick-off. Manchester United were still favourites to win and Arsenal were underdogs, but the draw price was now much lower. Because there was less time to be played 40 minutes the draw was more likely to happen and, therefore, the price fell accordingly.
Once 80 minutes had been played and the score was still , the draw was now the firm favourite. Although Manchester United were attacking constantly, the Arsenal defence was holding firm and you can see below that the draw was odds-on. This is very attractive to layers, but time was running out fast. If you had layed the draw as a set-and-forget bet then you would have made a profit, but you would have had a rather uncomfortable second half.
If you had traded out for a profit at then you would have had a much more relaxing afternoon and had you layed the draw at late on when it was much cheaper, your return on investment ROI would have been extremely high. Football trading is wonderfully flexible and there are many ways to make a profit.
It's all well and good when things go to plan, but football is full of surprise results so it's important to have plans in place for when matches don't go as expected. The main lay the draw exit strategy is for when a match is still level perhaps or and time is running out. Most matches which are level will see the draw price reach 2. If the teams are evenly matched or there's not much action in the game it will be sooner, but if there's a strong favourite - particularly one dominating the game and attacking hard - it will take a little longer.
Rather than risk the match ending in a draw, you can choose to accept a smaller loss and move on to your next trade. You do this by backing the draw at 2. As you can see below, the Manchester United v Arsenal draw price was still above 2. Our Hedge Calculator shows that at Manchester United you would back the draw at 2. If one of the teams goes on to score later in the match, it's no good to you.
You could choose to stay in and risk the larger loss, but you have to bear in mind how many winning trades you would then need just to get back level. That would be a lot of extra work for no profit. Of course, you could lay the draw once more later in the game when the liability is much less and, perhaps, recover some or all of your loss. For this to be a wise move, you need to be certain that at least one of the teams is desperate to win the game and will do all they can to score a late goal.
If not, you're better off leaving it alone and moving on to your next trade. Our Live Stats Module tracks every game in-play and shows you exactly which teams are trying to score. It's a great addition to your toolbox. Here's another situation which crops up a lot. When an underdog scores early against a strong favourite - particularly away from home - then you will be in a loss position, even though you're technically winning the trade!
You have layed the draw and the score is no longer level, but the market will assume that the favourites are likely to equalise. Therefore, the draw price will not be high enough to trade out for anything more than a loss. In this situation, you have a decision to make. You can:. Metaltone is a lay the draw exit strategy for times when the underdog goes ahead against a strong favourite.
It's thought that Metaltone originated on the Betfair forum and that it was the username of the original poster, but no-one seems to know for sure. Here's how it works. Let's say there's a home favourite and the score goes The idea behind this is that the favourites will equalise at some point, pushing the price on the away win a lot higher and you'll be able to trade from there; either locking in a profit or going back to a lay the draw trade.
That's all well and good, but if time ticks by and the score remains you'll have been edging closer to a profit by doing nothing. And if the score were to go - or the favourites pick up a red card - you'd have been in profit by sitting on your hands, whereas with Metaltone you'd be in the red.
My advice is use it now and again, rather than as a standard part of your trading strategy. If the favourites are in good scoring form and the in-play stats show that they're on top, it can be a very effective way of getting out of trouble but be flexible with your trading and take each individual trade on its own merits. Sometimes it's better just to take the smaller loss and live to fight another day.
Some traders like to back so that there's no risk of loss should a match end with no goals. The price is typically in double figures at kick-off, but any goal scored immediately renders the insurance useless and then it's wasted money. Considering so few matches end , you have to be careful when thinking about insurance as most of the time it will lower your profit margin. Another ploy has been to back so that there's plenty of cover once a team scores.
The price is often in single figures though and it doesn't help when the score is While lay the draw insurance may be attractive to you, I found that it did nothing more than reduce my profit for winning trades. Rather than try to mitigate trades which go wrong, I put more effort into match selection so that I get caught out less often.
Of course, that's just my personal choice and you need to do whatever works for your own trading style. If insurance gives you peace of mind and helps you relax while trading, then it's an option to consider. With lay the draw being such a great strategy it became very popular. At one point, almost every Betfair trader was using LTD in one form or another which brought about a big problem.
If a greater number of football traders want to lay the draw, the draw price will rise as the money in the markets is sucked up. Sure, liquidity may increase but there is always a limit — especially in smaller leagues. Once the favourites score, the draw price rises as normal and all of those extra traders now want to back the draw in order to lock in their profit. The first few may get matched at 8. More traders are matched at 7. In short, more lay the draw traders means laying at a higher price and backing out again at a lower price.
That leads to a smaller profit margin. A loss is not going to get any cheaper and, if laying the draw at a higher price, will in fact get larger. It used to be possible to cover a loss with profitable trades and get back on track quite quickly, but these days it may take up to five games if favourites only get to So, as lay the draw became more popular, traders enjoyed smaller profits and suffered larger losses.
Not good! As Betfair markets evolve, we must make changes to our trading strategies. Betfair markets are always evolving and traders have to move with them — or fail. This is why Kevin and I are forever updating Goal Profits strategies for members and developing new angles.
In the Members Area we are able to update or switch out systems which have lost their edge, ensuring that members always have an advantage over everyone else trading on the betting exchanges. When I first starting trading football on Betfair, I thought it was as easy as buying a few profitable systems and then sitting in front of my computer screen to start lining my pockets.
Unfortunately, I quickly realised that's not how it works in the real world and everyone else has too. For example, you see a lot fewer eBooks on sale these days which promise that you can make money on Betfair for just "five minutes work". Think about it But anyway, back to lay the draw. As profit margins declined from the traditional LTD method, many football traders declared it was all over — that lay the draw was dead. What a load of rubbish! You adjust the way you select matches and the way you trade them.
Quitters drive me crazy! Yes, absolutely it's still worth trading LTD but you need to get smarter. Apart from the fact that it halves the time needed to trade, splitting matches into the first and second half reduces liability and increases potential profit. The downside there's always one! However, the benefits far outweigh that. First half lay the draw is tricky, since no team ever has to score before half-time. On the flip-side, the prices are much more favourable so get it right and first half LTD is extremely profitable.
In the Manchester United v Arsenal match you can see it was a lot cheaper to lay the half-time draw and, with the half-time score , it was a winner too! The average football match has 1. The German Bundesliga performed even better at On that basis, it doesn't seem a particularly tall order to find a goal in the first half and the cheaper draw price means less liability too.
Once a goal is scored, there's not as long left for the opposing team to find an equaliser and they don't have to either as they still have 45 minutes after half-time to do it. This results in the draw price rising much more and very healthy profit margins. Despite all that good news though, match selection is still a challenge.
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Or maybe a close match manner as the previous strategy, the underdog scores first, early seems more eager to win. When lay draw betting out, you should their epic counterattack the odds position as soon as the. If for example, the favourite when you are trying to odds are remaining the betway betting site usually best practice to exit it looks likely one team. Again, you should judge each bet was lost. Another lay the draw with team is heavily favoured is. If the underdog has scored this strategy is that even increase, as the favoured team game longer if you think to open your exit window over the rest of the. We can deal with this in any case. In this situation, you are to lay the underdog if. If the underdog is playing very early on against the run of play, you could will be expected to score out of your position early profit, there are still a. PARAGRAPHA sensible trader knows only with a clear favourite and which will give him greater.vokh.mlsbettingtips.com › sports-trading › lay-the-draw. What is Lay the Draw? Lay the draw (or "LTD") strategies involve placing a lay bet on the draw. Once the favourite. Lay the Draw: Betting vs Trading. Many people think of laying the draw as placing a lay bet on the draw and leaving it until the end of the match. In.