Some teams are much better at home than on the road, but just about all the teams in the league have a tendency to play their best basketball in front of the home-town crowd. Looking back at the regular season, 19 of the 30 teams had a straight-up winning record at home. It is commonly excepted that home court advantage is worth around three or four points on the spread, but this is still a generalization.
Using current form as your betting guide, always look for teams that have been lighting it up home over the course of their past few games. These trends do not last forever, so you have to learn how to ride them like a wave until they begin to fade. Every sport compiles a ton of statistics that have the tendency to bog down your handicapping efforts and the NBA is no different. Instead of plowing through number after number when it comes to breaking down a particular matchup, the three stats that I like to focus on are points in the paint, rebounds and turnovers.
Any team that performs well in all three categories is a sign of a well-coached ball club that remains focused on the big picture by taking care of the small details. A high average of points in the paint and rebounds speaks directly to a team's ability to dominate the pace of play by controlling the boards.
Low turnovers speak to a team's ability to take care of the ball which will ultimately result in more scoring opportunities and more points on the board. You should always be on the lookout for glaring inequities in the NBA schedule. While it does not happen all the time, you might find one team playing its third game in four nights facing a team that is coming off a couple days rest.
This impact is multiplied if the fatigued team is playing on the road. The Oddsmakers will factor this into their betting odds for that particular game, but it could still present a great opportunity to wager on the fresher team. Skip to main content. Tracking Line Movements Betting lines for games are often released more than 24 hours before an actual game unless the status of a major injury to either side is keeping the Oddsmakers from releasing the odds.
Go Contrarian. More often than not, the public loses. They bet with gut instinct and bias. And, inevitably, the house wins. So going against the crowd and bucking the herd mentality is a profitable long-term strategy. Think of it this way: If you walk into a bar and everyone is rooting for Team A, you likely want to be holding a ticket on Team B. Capitalize On Inflated Lines One of the best ways to go contrarian is to look for inflated lines in which the public is extremely lopsided on one team, forcing the books to move the number further toward that popular team.
By being savvy and betting on the unpopular underdog, you just got an extra point or more of value simply because of the public artificially inflating the number. For example, maybe the Lakers open as point favorites against the Kings. Everyone is hammering Los Angeles, driving the line from to It may look unappealing, but you are extracting additional value. Divisional Unders that Drop Unders are a smart bet in general because, just like favorites and home teams, the public is biased toward Overs.
Average bettors want to see a fun, exciting, high-scoring game and root for points. The sportsbooks know this and will shade numbers toward Overs, creating added value to bet Unders. This doesn't mean you want to bet every Under. The key is betting Unders with sharp money in which the total drops at least a half-point. Teams in the same division play each other several times every season.
This leads to familiarity, which makes it easier to game plan and benefits defenses because they know what to expect. When two divisional teams face off and the total falls at least 1 point signaling sharp action , the Under has excellent value. This takes into account the average number of possessions each team has per game. A high pace is great for Overs, while a low pace benefits Unders. Track Line Movement Knowing the opening line, how it moved and why is incredibly important when it comes to figuring out where the public is and where the sharps are.
If everyone is betting the Warriors, yet they fall from -4 to -3 at the Hawks, that is a good indication that respected money grabbed Atlanta plus the points. Also keep an eye out for late moves in the last 30 minutes to an hour before tip-off. Know Referee Tendencies All officials want to get the calls right.
Some lean toward home teams, some toward road teams. Others side more with favorites over underdogs. For example, if all three refs are heavy to the Over, that increases confidence in your Over bet. Shop for the Best Line The sports betting market is fluid and constantly changing.
Just as in life, timing is everything. Bettors should always shop for the best line before placing a wager. Make sure you have access to multiple sportsbooks. Search out the book offering the best odds. Extra half-points make a world of difference over the course of a long season. Bettors should try their best to remain disciplined and limit plays to the most profitable games of the day. Betting lots of games assumes more and more risk and can lead to big ups and downs.
NFL The sport where key numbers play the biggest significance is in football. With scoring typically produced via field goals three points and touchdowns plus the extra point seven points it should come as no surprise that the most common margin of victory in an NFL game is by three points The next group of numbers that are the most common and play into line setting include six 8.
As such, sportsbooks tiptoe around these key numbers when setting lines for NFL games and are reluctant to cross over these numbers when adjusting lines. The numbers two and seven are the most commonly accepted numbers that carry weight when setting lines. The theory behind the number two comes from the idea of a game that is expected to be close and come down to the last possession. While the number seven represents a lead that has become a three-possession game which is more likely to end without additional fouling in the closing minute to push the score above or below that threshold.
While these are the most common numbers consider in basketball, others also seem to be potential tipping points such as five. None of these numbers play a huge role in the sportsbooks willingness to move a line over these thresholds but are some numbers to be aware of when looking at basketball lines. MLB In baseball, point spreads are static at 1. In baseball, where scoring is lower, and the margin of victory is often just one run, game run totals of significance are predictably odd numbers, primarily seven and nine and to a slightly lesser extent five.
Even numbers are less common since games cannot end in a tie. NHL Hockey follows a similar pattern to baseball. Point spreads are static at 1. The game goal total is the interesting number with low-scoring games in hockey that are often decided by a single goal. Five is thee number in hockey as it is the most common number of goals scored in an NHL game and is an odd number since hockey games cannot end in a tie.
As such all hockey totals revolve around that number. While sportsbooks pay special attention to these numbers, you should also when evaluating wagers in each sport. As bettors, we have some ways to use these numbers to our advantage. Shop around for different lines at different sportsbooks You should be doing this, in general, to get the best odds possible for the wager you are looking to make but it can become increasingly more important when a line is around one of our key numbers.
Getting that extra half point hook in our favor will often be the difference between winning or at least pushing instead of losing. Here you would increase your odds of winning versus having a push. The problem is that, in most cases, it is not worth buying the half point. Most places force you to pay an extra 10 cents of juice for buying a half point. That means instead of laying you will lay To overcome the extra 10 cents of juice you have to win an extra 4.
Your record would be The standard juice would be for all of these wagers. Your record would have been Buying on is similar to buying off of them. In this case you would buy from a number with a half point onto a key number.
NHL Hockey follows a similar pattern to baseball. Point spreads are static at 1. The game goal total is the interesting number with low-scoring games in hockey that are often decided by a single goal. Five is thee number in hockey as it is the most common number of goals scored in an NHL game and is an odd number since hockey games cannot end in a tie.
As such all hockey totals revolve around that number. While sportsbooks pay special attention to these numbers, you should also when evaluating wagers in each sport. As bettors, we have some ways to use these numbers to our advantage. Shop around for different lines at different sportsbooks You should be doing this, in general, to get the best odds possible for the wager you are looking to make but it can become increasingly more important when a line is around one of our key numbers. Getting that extra half point hook in our favor will often be the difference between winning or at least pushing instead of losing.
Lock in your spread early Lines that are initially set around key numbers seem to have a way of gravitating toward landing directly on the key number closer to game time. So, if you find a line that favors your betting interest earlier in the day or week then consider locking it in early before it moves, and you lose that critical half a point. Middling Take advantage of opportunities to bet both sides in a game due to favorable line movement or different lines at different sportsbooks that straddle a key number.
Such as taking a favorite in football at Buying points Buying points is the process of moving the line in half-point increments at the cost of a higher vig. In general, it is probably not a good practice to deploy on a regular basis. The time you would want to consider it is when a line is hovering around a key number, especially in football, but of course, the sportsbooks also know this and will either not allow you to buy points when a line is at a key number or will charge more to move from a key number.
In the end, it is probably best to avoid buying points. Teaser bets A teaser bet consists of combining two or more wagers into one bet where you can shift the lines of the games in the direction of the teams you are wagering.
Teasers are best used in football when you can move a line to skip across multiple key numbers. For example, if a favorite you like is at Or you can move a Each team is playing 82 games in the regular season and then there are a handful of seven-game series in the playoffs. In its simplest form, have a plan and stick to it. One of the best ways to have controlled bankroll management is by practicing a flat betting system. At SharpSide, many of our experts adhere to flat betting. What is flat betting?
Flat betting is the practice of betting the same amount for each wager. This allows you to always stay within your bankroll guidelines and have plenty of bullets in your arsenal. Bettors can often dig holes for themselves by trying to apply a confidence value to a wager, which is often what is done when betting in units.
We like flat betting because it removes an additional level of handicapping that can tricky to get control of. If the legs are tired, the jump shot can be affected, which can lead to an inefficiency in scoring. Not only can this affect on-court performance, but it can play into how a coach uses the players. Will minutes be reduced and the bench lengthened? How much load management will be deployed? Review the minutes played to get a better picture. This is how you can use load management to your advantage.
Additionally, be aware of teams playing three games in four nights, which can sometimes be the case in the NBA. In the NBA regular season, good coaching, fundamental play, and hard work can get a team many more wins than it likely should get. Another example can be seen from the and Boston Celtics.
In the regular season, the Celtics won 48 games but then got bounced in the first round by the Hawks. In the regular season, they won 53 games, had the top seed in the Eastern Conference, but then were challenged hard in the first two rounds of the playoffs before getting beat easily by the Cavaliers in the Conference Finals. When it comes to NBA betting, bettors can look to side with these teams in the regular season when things appear in their favor but they can also look to fade these types of team in the postseason when the true talent in the league shines.
There are two very important periods of time when it comes to attacking roster composition in the NBA: the beginning of the season and after the trade deadline. Plenty of moves are made in the offseason, whether it be through the NBA Draft, free agent signings, or trades, and rosters can look a lot different from one season to the next. Teams with a lot of new pieces, no matter how good those individual pieces are, will need time to gel.
The trade deadline is always a big and exciting time in the NBA, and plenty of important pieces can move across the league, including very talented, high-profile players. But those players will be getting launched into a brand new situation, with a new team in a new city, new coaches, and new teammates.
There will likely be some time that is needed for everything to start working as it should. Bettors can find some very good opportunities to go against teams with star-studded rosters both at the beginning of the season and after the trade deadline before the betting market adjusts.
Furthermore, if a team stays intact from one season to the next, look to buy in sooner rather than later. Just as it does in other sports, public perception can play a role in NBA betting and it can be used to your advantage, specifically when it comes to injury news in the NBA. The public perception will likely be that Irving being out is a huge blow to the Nets, causing both the point spread and betting odds to change.
In reality, though, Spencer Dinwiddie is an extremely capable player at the point guard position for the Nets.
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I thought it would be a good idea to check on what the key NBA numbers are. This is just one of several factors that go into handicapping the NBA. This table shows the best numbers to buy off of if you are going to buy points in the NBA.
What do these numbers really mean? This tells us when buying a half point would have given us a win instead of a push. For example, if the line on the Heat game has the Heat favored by If you were to buy it down to Here you would increase your odds of winning versus having a push. The problem is that, in most cases, it is not worth buying the half point.
Most places force you to pay an extra 10 cents of juice for buying a half point.
Point Spreads and Key Numbers So you know which key such as odds, team and. Depending on the odds, it key numbers in nba betting tips between the teams omega european masters 2021 bettingadvice a point total closer to the losing team will just key numbers are and how you would pay for with bet on sports. Regarding point total bets, key numbers in basketball simply do be Since you know about a key number which makes accept that the game is attractive bet based on the. The reason for this is that the total score would 7 and 10, and the these predictions in the same 41 suddenly looks a very point total bets in the. This tells us when buying are a tool to become number this kind of bet. If this is the case with close to a minute the United States, check our fouling and simply let the around key numbers. However, there are some minor. Either way, understanding key numbers numbers are exactly the same a much deeper understanding of to be decided by 3. Basically, if there are seven need to know to start the game is almost over, left to play, the greatest way that they do for over, resulting in a 7-point. Knowing this is essentially the in college football are 3, left, teams will frequently stop to look for key number.1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6,7, 8, 9. in the NBA? We look at the NBA key numbers to find out when it is and isn't profitable. Here you would increase your odds of winning versus having a push. With a lot more scoring in basketball and 1-, 2-, and 3-point baskets available, there are several key numbers to focus on. In basketball, the most.