With the changes in how starting pitchers are handled, a first five innings wager is increasingly important. What you are betting on is just what it says, the result of the initial five innings of a baseball contest. With bullpen usage at an all-time high, this wager takes the sport back to its roots, where the starting pitchers dictated the line. This is now condensed to the start of a contest where you can find potential pitching mismatches and profit from them.
What we are looking for are edges in starting pitchers. Typically, an ace from a top-notch team would be a good starting point possibly facing a middle-of-the-road starter who has poor numbers going through the opposing lineup a third time.
There could be no score after three innings, or your team is down after one inning. At that point, the better pitcher has settled in and is hanging zeros, while the team you bet against hurler walks the leadoff man and ends up surrendering three or more runs in the fourth and fifth innings. This does not happen all the time. However, if you know the starters history, you can forecast a quality result.
The same would also be true of possibly betting against a No. If he has a history of rarely completing four-plus innings and permitting three or more runs a start and matched against a hot opposing hurler, that sets up a great scenario.
Though the origins of this bet are murky, there is no doubt this wager came about because of how baseball changed. Though most fans and bettors want to blame the analytics crowd for the demise of the starting pitcher based on pitch counts and third time through the lineup, that is not entirely true.
Starting pitching innings have been in slow decline since the s as the role of relief pitchers changed. Relievers were and to some extent are still failed starters. As baseball has evolved and teams realized a "closer" was a very useful tool to finish and win games, it began to view elements of the game differently. If a pitcher had a pitch or two that was extremely difficult to hit, this reliever added value to his organization as a specialist.
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